September 20, 2007

The Illinois market has already begun to pick up.

          We asked David Braun of Suez Energy Resources (RT, 8/21), regional vice president for PJM, what he thinks of today's markets there.

          He opened a Suez office recently in Oak Brook, Ill.

          Braun's seen markets pick up but he's not certain whether the change is seasonal or from changes in the law.

          Larger customers were put on hourly pricing thus he suspects changes in the law explain their activity.

          Sales, he reported, definitely began to pick up as did interest in switching -- especially among smaller customers.  He's spoken with brokers who are showing a growing interest in coming into the market.

          While Braun favors some of the changes in the retail market, he finds designers have made the C&I market simpler, "easier to understand."

          He's referring to the decision in the law to have any entity using over 400,000 kw pay the hourly PJM price.   That number drops to 100 kw as of May of next year.   Braun believes that will be good for retail marketers.

          Even in Illinois, above the 3-mw level, the market has been characterized by switch rates above 90% because customers want to get the variety of offers from marketers such as price security that the utility can't provide.

          Braun worried a long time that the state would not do well for marketers but "I'm very happy with the way it came out."

          He's happy for the C&I market and is hopeful of seeing a residential market develop.  About 20 suppliers are serving the Illinois market, he said, quoting from the ICC website.

          As the PJM representative at Suez, what does that mean?

          Braun is responsible for generating business in Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.  He's checking out Delaware now.

          Meanwhile he finds Duquesne's filing with FERC to get out of PJM to join the Midwest ISO "very troubling."

          He believes the RPM capacity model is behind it.

          "The capacity prices clearing on that market for the Western part," meaning Duquesne and ComEd, has gone above $100/mw/day and "it just doesn't make any sense.

          "That's going to cause market disruption across the board."

          Braun predicted the possibility that any supplier will have to consider changing the price offers to every single customer if FERC OKs the switch -- "disruptive across the board."

          Braun called Duquesne and the emerging Pennsylvania market the next new opportunity for marketers.